So what'd I miss?


I have not written a post in 11 days.

Partly because the NFL is about to start, and it’s been very busy at work and partly because of a weak/no network in Glacier National Park where K and I spent our labor day weekend.

So what did I miss?

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Let’s begin with the markets. After a great summer, the last few sessions have been rocky for US markets. There is no one reason why that is the case, but historically, September has been the worst month for the markets. Over its 124 year history, Dow has, on average lost 2% in September.

As I said, this summer was an exceptional period; in fact, it was the best summer in 36 years for SP500. Enjoy it while it lasts. I’ll be doing another update to the “Vital Signs” in a week or two to better understand the economy by looking at the indicators.

Next, let’s talk about travel in this pandemic-

It was interesting least to say. We flew Delta, and I think they’re doing a phenomenal job keeping travelers safe. Everyone that I saw was wearing masks and following social distancing guidelines.

Speaking of the pandemic, I wrote a post called “Back to Normal” on June 8th when India relaxed its lockdown rules.

This is what I wrote at the time-

Why is everything back to normal? Especially in India. What happened to “flattening” nay “crushing!” the curve?

The data certainly does not support reopening.

Following is the chart of daily new cases in India. It’s increasing at 11,000 cases per day.

It’s been three months since then, and a lot has happened. Let’s look at where India is right now.

On Sept 10th, reported daily cases are 96,550 compared to 11,000 a hundred days back. This is the power of exponentials.

I know for a fact that there are a lot of people who have strong symptoms but won’t get tested. Those cases will never be reported. The true total number of cases must be staggering and there is no end in sight. I am not being an alarmist but want to urge authorities to get this under control. If nothing is done, India will have the most number of cases in the world in a month.

Its been a few days since our trip, and both of us are not showing any symptoms. Stay safe and wash hands.